Last week someone asked: “Silver has doubled… should I buy now?” The honest answer is i dont know if it can still go up—but the odds of short-term pain are higher when you enter after a sharp run-up. That’s how recency bias tricks us: we assume yesterday’s winners will keep winning.

A calmer strategy is to rebalance: book partial profits from what has surged and deploy slowly into segments that are still reasonably priced. This reduces the “buy high, sell low” loop that comes from performance chasing

If an asset has run up a lot, don’t ask only “Can it go higher?” Also ask: “How much can it fall if sentiment changes?” Mean reversion is real—returns often cool after exceptional phases. The solution isn’t prediction; it’s process: asset allocation, rebalancing, and phased investing.